Trading Review for 4/6/2000
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Successful trading is about knowing where to look for opportunities, knowing when to seize the opportunity (or not), and managing their risk to maximize their profits. To that end, let's take a quick look at today's trading action relative to the top Trade Prospector signals:
Volatility - Volatility Compressions, Trading Range Patterns, and Multiday Patterns
MSTR Triggered shorts at its 61.8 lower breakpoint twice - first for up to 1 point and then for up to 2 points - inspite of the selling, it managed to find support around 60 and resistance around 64 - tomorrow aggressive traders could risk short below 60 or going long above 64 as potentially early entries CORR Triggered long trades at its 75.8 upper breakpoint for up to 3 points QQQ The 103.9 upper breakpoint held exactly as resistance today, no breakout trade entries - keep an eye out for an entry in the next day or so MACR Gapped open above the 71.9 upper breakpoint but eventuall pulled back for a while and offered a long entry worth up to about 6 points - it finished well, look for possible continued buying tomorrow - multiday traders carrying this position into tomorrow should risk a stop no lower than 73 MFNX The 71.9 upper breakpoint exactly held as resistance for most of the day until a rally attempt in the last 1/2 hour of trading pushed the stock price up over two points through BP1 - daytraders should not have risked an entry with only 15 minutes left but those that did closed out at breakeven - even though it finished well, multiday traders likewise should not be risking an overnight hold because their position lacks sufficient profit, but if you did - risk no less than a stop at 70. ISLD Gapped way above its 41.4 upper breakpoint - gap up and then sellof into the lunch hour should have told traders to not risk a long entry when 41.4 was traded through about 12:35pm ET, but for those who did they grabbed up to 1 point before selling resumed PHCM Triggered trades long at its 123.1 upper breakpoint but stopped them out quickly with small losses to breakeven, a subsequent run through BP1 in the afternoon gave up to 3 points YHOO Spiked to the 170.3 upper breakpoint resistance level and failed, when it sold off through the 166.9 lower channel boundary the resulting shorts were worth up to 16 points
Momentum - Breakthrough Momentum and Momentum Intersections
AETH Briefly shot through its 148.7 continuation boundary for up to 3 points before its momentum waned - it then sold off until after lunch and rallied back to close 7 point above its low - upward momentum could continue tomorrow although wait to enter above 152, otherwise look to short below 132 MLNM Triggered long trades at its 169.6 continuation boundary for up to 20 points, after selling off from there and finally bottomed about 3pm ET around 156, it's subsequent 19 point rally triggered longs again at the 169.8 continuation boundary for up to 5 points - multiday traders risking their 3+ point profits at the close on further upside tomorrow should risk no less than a breakeven stop CRA Gapped open enormously - no trade VITR Following its 2:1 split it gapped open enormously at the open 12 points at the open before quickly falling almost 10 points in as many minutes - no trades ENTU Gapped open above its continuation boundary - no trade NVLS Remained within its boundaries - no trade - look for opportunities tomorrow - long @ 55.7 and short @ 48.3 (aggressive early entry long @ 54.5 and short at 50.5)
Trading Channel - Channel Breach, Near Trading Channel, and Near/Narrow Channel
ETEK The 207.8 upper breakpoint held as resistance in the morning, shorts at the 203 lower channel boundary were good for up to 2 points a few times and finally up to 5 points late in the day - watch for a possible breakout trade tomorrow CHKP Traders were whipsawed for losses at the 171.3 upper breakpoint and would have adjusted there entry boundary or walked away, those adjusting their entries had another breakeven or small loss trade and after adjusting their entry boundary again would finally have had up to a 2 point trade in the afternoon EXDS Had a short at the 134.4 lower channel boundary for up to 3 points MEDI Triggered longs at its 182.7 upper channel boundary for up to 4 points and for up to 7 points BRCM Gave shorts at its 201.3 lower channel boundary for up to 10 points TERN Trigerred shorts at its 182.7 lower channel boundary for up to 15 points MVSN No trades - look for an opportunity tomorrow AMCC Triggered longs at its 133.8 upper breakpoint in the morning which were ultimately stopped out for breakeven to a small loss - in the afternoon the long trade was worth up to 5 points - this finished strong and multiday traders who held overnight expecting further upside should not risk anything less than a breakeven stop
Envelope - Breakout Patterns and Envelope Patterns
NPIX Tested the 27.4 failed downward envelope boundary on weak volume - no trade - look for possible entry tomorrow AMD Gapped open well beyond its continuation boundary - no trade WPI The 46.5 continuation boundary held as resistance signalling a possible failed rally - no trades - watch for signs of movement one way or the other tomorrow S Remained within its boundaries - no trade - watch for a possible opening tomorrow MESG The 9 false breakout boundary held as resistance - no trade UNP Triggered longs at the 41.5 buy entry boundary for up to 1 point CP The 23.9 breakout buy entry boundary held as resistance signalling a possible false breakout which triggered traders short at 23.4 for fractional gains - multiday traders may be holding overnight with breakeven stops
Knowing where to expect, and capitalizing on, reversals is a key profit making tool in the daytrader's arsenal.
Whipsaws can happen in choppy markets and traders should always step away from the trade or give themselves more distance from the original entry boundary when a reversal occurs (such as adding one point to the reversal side of the trade entry boundary) to reduce the effect. Losses are a fact of life, but they can be easily kept to a minimum while maximizing your profits with proper stop management.
Recognizing that a mere one point per day profit when trading 500 shares (or 5 option contracts) is $120,000 per year, you begin to understand the potential for profit in applying Trade Prospector's information.
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Disclaimer: Third Millennium Trading does not recommend the purchase or short sale of any stocks. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk. The information presented here is designed to contribute to your understanding. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is critical (more).