Trading Review for 3/31/2000
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Successful trading is about knowing where to look for opportunities, knowing when to seize the opportunity (or not), and managing their risk to maximize their profits. To that end, let's take a quick look at today's trading action relative to the top Trade Prospector signals:
Volatility - Volatility Compressions, Trading Range Patterns, and Multiday Patterns
BRCM Continuing yesterday's trade dissection - after yesterday's rocking rollercoaster ride, it gapped open higher above its directional swing point at 216.5 and sold off briefly back below the swing point. Swing traders would have stood aside following a gap open like that pending some price stabalization and would have not entered long or short for at least the first 15 minutes. The price action eventually climbed back into its trading channel above its 219.6 lower channel boundary and hung there for several minutes before falling back through triggering breakout traders short for quick trades of up to 5 points. Swing traders taking the short as the price came back through the swing point took home a quick 2 points.
Swing traders again went long as the price traded back north and closed their positions for up to 3 points as the lower channel boundary proved repeated resistance. Low volume congestion at the swing point followed and traders would have stood back waiting for a clear entry signal. That signal came about 11am ET when the price traded below the congestion zone around the swing point. Swing traders going short gained up to 9 points.
As it did yesterday, the stock found support at its lower breakpoint and traders would have been extremely cautious of going short here without clear confirmation. The price in fact bottomed 1/8 below TP's lower breakpoint projection and reversed.
Reversal traders risking a long at this point were rewarded with an incredible run of over 35 points. Swing traders entering long at the swing point gained up to 25 points. Breakout traders going long near the 228.5 upper breakpoint gained up to 10 points.
Note that breakout traders were tested several times as the price action congested near the upper breakpoiint - first holding below the breakpoint at about 1:30pm ET, then managing to trade 1 1/4 points above the breakpoint on weak declining volume, and then doing it again also on weak volume, and then finally climbing through the congestion channel on increasing volume at about 2:15pm ET. Most traders would have exited when the price congested near the 240.5 SR1 (which held as resistance on several attempts, including several high volume attempts). The price finally closed just below the 242.9 SR.
EXDS Opened higher and then sold off for most of the day. When the price traded through 145.3, swing traders would have risked shorts worth up to 15 points. Breakout traders saw the 135.8 lower breakpoint initially provide support about 10:30am ET and finally was breached about 11:15am ET.for up to 2 points. A gasping rally attempt back to the lower breakpoint offered another shorting opportunity, this time for up to 6 points. MSTR After yesterday's strong finish after a mostly choppy day, the stock gapped open right at the 101 upper breakpoint and momentarily hit 101 1/2. Traders should of course not risked a long trade on such a weak gap open and, as would be expected, the stock sold off immediately. As it crossed through the 96 directional swing point on increased volume, swing traders would have gone short and picked up 1 1/2-6 points depending on how closely they managed their stops. The support cluster near 90 held and the price congested between 90 and 91 for over an hour before attempting to rally. Trading was pretty weak most of the day, but the real trading opportunities of the day came when the price action rallied back into its trading channel and then fell back through its 93.4 lower channel boundary - first for up to 2 points and then later for up to 5 points. CRA Opened higher but barely got within 2 points of its upper breakpoint. The 92.3 swing point provided support for most of the morning during the price oscillations until a little after 11am ET the price pushed below the swing point. Swing traders going short at that point picked up to 3 points. The stock found a bottom at 88 about a point from its lower breakpoint and finally managed to rally. When it rallied back through the swing point, swing traders going long would have grabbed up to 10 points. Breakout traders going long at the breach of the 97.9 upper breakpoint got two chances at longs - first for up to 2 points and again for up to 5 points. Finally, post 3pm ET selling took hold and brought the stock price back to about where it had opened. GSPN Opened higher and came within 1/2 point of its 117.5 lower channel boundary and begain selling off - reversal traders who risked a short here gained up to 14 points. Swing traders who shorted as the price fell through 110.5 gained up to 7 points. Otherwise no good trade entries. GLW Traded within its boundaries all day - the only trades were to swing traders who picked off up to 20 points and reversal traders who risked longs when the price bottomed 3/8 short of the 179.7 lower breakpoint.
Momentum - Breakthrough Momentum and Momentum Intersections
EMLX Gapped open near its 138.5 upward continuation boundary. Except for low volume spikes to 138 7/8, weakness here ruled out risking a long entry. Instead, reversal traders risking a short into that weakness and solid overhead resistance snagged up to 33 points in the ensuing selloff. Traders who shorted at the 130.6 failed momentum boundary picked up to 25 points. CREE Gapped open above its 123.1 failed downward momentum boundary but sold off. At 107 (2 1/2 short of the 105.4 momentum continuation boundary) it began trading up. Upon trading through the 123.1 boudary, traders taking longs gained up to 13 points. At about 3pm ET, a round of late afternoon selling hit that drove the price back down to about where it began. Look for a potential continuation on Monday. VNTR Opened higher and ran up to within 3 points of its failed momentum boundary before downward pressure seized it again - however it remained within its boundaries - no trade. Look for further selling on Monday. VIGN Sold off from the open and triggered shorts at its 156 continuation boundary for up to 18 points. INSP Sold to within about one point of its continuation boundary and the downward momentum finally abated and it bounced - it traded within its boundaries - no trades UCOMA Triggered longs at its 72.7 failed momentum boundary for up to 2 points
Trading Channel - Channel Breach, Near Trading Channel, and Near/Narrow Channel
TERN Gapped higher short of its 225.5 upper breakpoint and then sold off - swing traders were initially triggered short at 209.9 but were stopped out for from breakeven to one point and lowered their short entry zone to below 208.9 or 207.9 (depending on whether they use 1 point or 1% for whipsaw adjustment). After a brief rally attempt it again sold off and when it dropped through the adjusted swing point short traders picked up 2-14 points depending on their stop managment. The stock found support at the lower breakpoint/lower channel boundary cluster at 194.3/193.4 and rebounded. Reversal traders picked up a quick up to 13 points on the bounce. The stock traded choppy for most of the afternoon and only swing traders had any further entries by trading the oscillations through the swing point. PHCM Gapped back into its trading channel above 149.8 and gave two shorting opportunities when it traded back down through that boundary - first for up to 1 1/2 points and later for up to 11 points. Swing traders also had entries as the price traded through the 151.3 swing point. Swing traders also caught a long trade in the afternoon for up to 11 points. RFMD Gapped higher back into its trading channel and gave short entries when it fell back through its 133.9 lower channel boundary for up to 13 points. The price found support about 11:15am ET within 1/2 point of its 119 lower breakpoint and rebounded - reversal traders risking longs gained up to 18 points. Swing traders trading the 131 swing point gained up to 11 points on their shorts and up to 6 points on their longs. MEDI Gapped higher back into its trading channel and gave brief breakeven shorts at its 166.6 lower channel boundary. It also gave quick breakeven trades at its 173.4 upper breakpoint. Reversal traders risking shorts at this point gained up to 10 points. Traders going short again at the lower channel boundary picked up to 4 points. FNSR Triggered shorts at its 138.5 lower channel boundary for up to 7 points. JNPR Opened higher and then sold off finding early support near its 260.8 lower channel boundary where it bounced - reversal traders risking longs here gained up to 14 points. The eventual failure of that rally and subsequent selling through the lower channel boundary triggered short trades good for up to 13 points. EXAP After gapping above its trading channel, it sold off all the way into the lunch hour. It triggered shorts at its 50.5 lower channel boundary for up to 2 points. It bottomed at its 48.6 lower breakpoint and slowly began trading back up. ADRX Range traded for most of the day, but finally triggered longs at its 111.8 upper channel boundary for up to 6 points.
Envelope - Breakout Patterns and Envelope Patterns
RHAT Gapped open higher above its 42.6 failure boundary at hit stiff resistance. It quickly sold off to within about 1/4 point of its 39.3 downward continuation boundary where it found repeated support and eventually rebounded. No trades except for reversal traders who shorted at the failure at resistance for up to 3 points and went long at the lower support zone for up to 3 more points. FNV Remained within its boundaries - no trader WWCA Triggered long trades at its 44.8 false breakout boundary for about 1 point KIDE Gapped way up and then quickly continued its selling posture. The 24 continuation boundary wasn't broken until almost 3:45pm ET - not worth risking a trade except for multiday traders looking for continued selling on Monday. ACL Gave a long entry at its 21.4 breakout buy boundary for up to 2 1/2 points.
Knowing where to expect, and capitalizing on, reversals is a key profit making tool in the daytrader's arsenal.
Whipsaws can happen in choppy markets and traders should always step away from the trade or give themselves more distance from the original entry boundary when a reversal occurs (such as adding one point to the reversal side of the trade entry boundary) to reduce the effect. Losses are a fact of life, but they can be easily kept to a minimum while maximizing your profits with proper stop management.
Recognizing that a mere one point per day profit when trading 500 shares (or 5 option contracts) is $120,000 per year, you begin to understand the potential for profit in applying Trade Prospector's information.
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Disclaimer: Third Millennium Trading does not recommend the purchase or short sale of any stocks. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk. The information presented here is designed to contribute to your understanding. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is critical (more).