Trading Review for 3/30/2000
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Successful trading is about knowing where to look for opportunities, knowing when to seize the opportunity (or not), and managing their risk to maximize their profits. To that end, let's take a quick look at today's trading action relative to the top Trade Prospector signals:
Volatility - Volatility Compressions, Trading Range Patterns, and Multiday Patterns
BRCM This one's worth dissecting in some detail because it demonstrates the many factors that traders (even those with good TA) need to consider as part of the business of trading- the stock gapped open at its 208.7 lower breakpoint and found repeated strong supported about 1 point below that level - traders who were triggered short at the lower breakpoint should have existed quickly at breakeven when support was demonstrated. The stock then rallied and climed through its 217.5 directional swing point - this was a classic entry for swing traders as the stock had already demonstrated highly tested support at the lower breakpoint near the open and was now rallying toward the upper breakpoint. Swing traders who entered here rode the stop for up to 12 points profit.
Breakout traders waiting for a long entry, initially saw the price touch 226 15/32 (above its 226.2 upper breakpoint) on declining volume, if traders were faked into a long position they were quickly stopped out as volume continued to drop off and the price fell. A second attempt to break the upper breakpoint proved briefly successful and traders snagged up to 3 points. However volume fell off steadily from its high and picked up as the price fell back through the upper breakpoint.
This increasing volume on a price decline through a major boundary would have triggered reversal players into risking a closely managed short which would ultimately have been worth up to about 17 points.
Breakout traders were given a shorting opportunity at the 219.7 lower channel boundary. It initially found some support at this boundary with insufficient selling pressure to push the price decisively through and managed a brief bounce off support. But selling pressure resumed and after weakening volume approaching the boundary, volume stepped back up and the price sold through giving traders a short worth up to about 10 points.
Directional swing traders were given a short when the price (after having failed at the upper breakpoint) was soon trading back through the 217.5 swing point (including a volume spike which drove the price through that price point). Price congested near the swing point for about 12 minutes or so before continuing its downward track. Shorts were worth up to 9 points.
At about 12:15pm ET, the price action again approached the 208.7 lower breakpoint. Given the earlier repeatedly tested support just below this level, traders would have been cautious here and not initiated shorts at least until the previous low support at 207 3/8 was taken out. In fact, 208 was as low as the price got this time at which time the price action again made a rally attempt, eventually climbing again back above its lower channel boundary..
Reversal traders risking this rally from demonstrated support gleened up to another 10 points or so. Swing traders who took the long as the price again traded through the swing point gained up to 3 points.
Once above its lower channel boundary, the price action repeatedly bounced off this support level until about 1:35pm ET, the price breached below its trading channel and sold to around the directional swing point. The price congested near the swing point for about 25 minutes even while large volume selling ensued. This selling activity was a strong clue that further downside was coming, which it did. Channel breakout shorts gained up to 7 points and swing traders gained up to 5.
After being stopped out of their short positions around 2:30pm ET, traders would have waited for another entry. After a brief rally attempt and then further selling, traders were again given a trade opportunity when the price again reached the multiply tested support zone at the 208.7 lower breakpoint. Reversal traders were given a final shot at a long position when, once again, the strong support at the breakpoint that had been demonstrated several times earlier again held and the price made a final attempt at a rally. Reversal longs gained up 5 more points.
This was a rollercoaster and gave several types of traders multiple entry opportunities. Likewise, it gave those not yet experienced in judging their daytrade entries near key boundaries at least a couple of opportunities to get stopped out for a loss. Clearly demonstrating an unavoidable fact of trading - regardless of how accurate your technical analysis or automated trading tools, trading is a business that involves a set of skills that must be developed in order to compete successfully. Jumping into battle, even with the best armor and weapons, can still be a costly endevour until you've honed your fighting skills.
MSTR Gapped open below both its lower breakpoint and lower channel boundary and after continuing to bounce off support at 91 for the first ten minutes it managed to rally. Reversal traders who risked longs grabbed up to 5 points. Swing traders were triggered long at the 98.5 swing point, however resistance proved to be 1/2 point higher and traders were stopped out with 1/2 point losses. A subsequent attempt yielded up to 2 point gains. The general choppiness made subsequent trading difficult, however traders shorting at the 94.4 lower breakpoint boundary picked up 1-3 points. The stock finished strong on increasing volume. ADAP Gapped open lower, well below its key trading boundaries, but rallied back above its 105.2 lower breakpoint. Traders may have been triggered short briefly and stopped out for between fractional losses to breakeven on a short lived downward pop back through the lower breakpoint. They were later triggered short again at the lower breakpoint for up to 5 points. Another shorting opportunity at the lower breakpoint came about an hour later for up to 5 more points. A generally choppy and weak trading day that seriously tested trader's skills. CRGN Gapped open lower and waded in confusion for the first 10-12 minutes. It finally began to rally and ultimately gave traders a 1 point trade at its 89.1 upper breakpoint before selling pressure dragged the price back down. Those risking a reversal picked up to 5 points. Those shorting at the 86.9 lower channel boundary picked up to 2 1/2 points. Those risking a swing trade after the open as the rally came through the 83 swing point picked up to 7 points on the long trade. GLW Gapped open lower but found support just short of the 191.5 lower breakpoint. A rally attempt took the price to within 1/2 point of the 198.5 swing point and one point below its 199 lower channel boundary. The resistance proved too much and the stock sold off precipitously. The lower breakpoint proved to be support as it was at the open, but finally sufficient selling pressure drove the stock through that level triggering shorts that were eventually worth up to 6 points. PEB Eventually triggered short trades at its 79.9 lower breakpoint for up to 3 points NTAP Gapped lower at the open below its key boundaries but soon rallying back to just touch its 92 directional swing point (and get 1/2 point above its lower channel boundary). The subsequent failure at the swing point resistance and drop through the lower channel boundary triggered traders short for up to 19 points. NVDA Following a gap lower opening to less than 3/4 point of the lower breakpoint, the stock rallied back to within 1/4 point of its upper breakpoint which presented strong resistance and the stock sold off into the afternoon. A reversal trade risked at the opening support was worth about 9 points and a reversal risked at the subsequent resistance point was worth up to 10 points.
Momentum - Breakthrough Momentum and Momentum Intersections
EMLX Reversing its multiday downward momentum, it gap open higher and charged higher on good volume through its 130.6 failed/reversed momentum boundary for up to 5 points. A similar trade opportunity presented itself in the early afternoon for another up to 5 points. CHKP Also attempted to reverse its downward momentum, but only managing to get about one point beyond its failure boundary before exhausting itsefl and selling off. This triggered traders long and then stopped them out for fractional to one point losses. A reversal at this failed reversal boundary garnered up to 16 points. VIGN Also attempted a momentum reversal by trading through its 184.4 failure boundary producing long trades worth up to 4 points. However, its overall downward momentum again took hold and drove the stock price through its 169.6 continuation boundary twice - first for up to 7 points and again for up to 13 points. Those risking reversals on the failed rally coming back through 184.4 had short trades worth up to 12 points. CHINA Gapped down to its downward momentum continuation boundary @ 76 and continued down fractionally further before stopping traders out for between fractional losses to breakeven. The subsequent rebound from this level was fast and reversal traders may not have been able to get a trade off - however those that did gained a very fast 4-8 points. VLNC Reversed course hyperbolically from the open, but failed to trigger an entry - no trades AXNT Also traded within its boundaries - no trade
Trading Channel - Channel Breach, Near Trading Channel, and Near/Narrow Channel
ABGX The 145.5 lower breakpoint support held following its gap open lower, this level was tested several times and traders should have been very cognizant of this fact and given that support zone due recognition. Choppy price action eventually penetrated this level shortly after 11am ETand gave quick short trades worth up to 5 points. A subsequent rally back above the breakpoint and an eventual failure to hold that support gave traders another trade for up to 5 points. The lower breakpoint had now become resistance rather than support and another shorting opportunity presented itself about noon when the price action ran up to within 1/2 point below the lower breakpoint and again found resistance - shorts from this even were worth up to 6 points. The stock continued being choppy and continued to narrow its oscillation amplitude so traders should have walked away at this point and look for other opportunities. RMBS Following a huge gap lower well below its key boundaries, the stock attempted to rally back ultimately climbing back above its 309.9 lower channel boundary - the stock price failed to hold and triggered shorts as it fell again through the lower channel boundary for up to 35 points. AETH Gapped lower below its key boundaries and also attempted to rally back, but came up short. The failed rally and the subsequent selling back through the 221.8 swing point offered a good shorting opportunity that proved to be worth up to 30 points. Those who shorted on the breach of the 204 lower breakpoint gained up to 12 points. EBAY Traded within its boundaries until lat in the day when it penetrated its 194.1 lower breakpoint for up to 2 points. ARBA Gapped lower below its key boundaries and proceded to rally to just above its lower channel boundary at 240.7. The resistance offered by the channel boundary was too much and the price action fell again triggering shorts worth 9-25 points depending on the trader's stop management methods. MLNM Traded within its boundaries - no trade but look for possible action tomorrow FNSR Gapped below its key boundaries and then rallied back triggering longs at its 148.5 upper channel boundary for up to 2 points before being able to sustain the price and falling back - this was a narrow channel play and traders should have risked the failure at the upper channel boundary to short which would have been worth about 11 points. The eventual breach of the 137.7/136.9 lower TC/BP support cluster offered another shorting opportunity for up to 5 points.
Envelope - Breakout Patterns and Envelope Patterns
NEON Continued to the downside triggering shorts at its 39.9 boundary for up to 3 points BLSW Gapped open below its 40.2 continuation boundary and then tried to rally back. It triggered shorts which were stopped out for between fractional losses to breakeven when the price traded back down through the boundary and then rebounded. Shorting on a subsequent drop through the boundary was worth up to 3 points. RHAT Gapped below its 42.6 continuation boundary and sold off to below 40 before rallying back above the boundary. It triggered shorts when it traded through the boundary which were worth up to 2 1/2 points. RIG Triggered longs at its 50.5 buy entry breakout boundary for up to 2 1/2 points. The breakout ultimately petered out and the price sold down to ultimately rebound off its 47.9 false breakout boundary - multiday traders may have risked an overnight hold on the reversal at the false breakout boundary (with a breakeven stop). TFSM Triggered shorts shortly after the open when the price fell through its 42.5 sell entry breakdown boundary - the bounce off 42 rolled back to 43 7/16 - traders who still had their initial one point stop were not hit, traders who trailed their stop down to 43 were taken out for a 1/2 point loss and reentered short when the price again traded through the breakdown boundary. Shorts today were ultimately worth up to 4 points. DHR Triggered longs at its 47.8 buy entry breakout boundary for up to 2 points.
Knowing where to expect, and capitalizing on, reversals is a key profit making tool in the daytrader's arsenal.
Whipsaws can happen in choppy markets and traders should always step away from the trade or give themselves more distance from the original entry boundary when a reversal occurs (such as adding one point to the reversal side of the trade entry boundary) to reduce the effect. Losses are a fact of life, but they can be easily kept to a minimum while maximizing your profits with proper stop management.
Recognizing that a mere one point per day profit when trading 500 shares (or 5 option contracts) is $120,000 per year, you begin to understand the potential for profit in applying Trade Prospector's information.
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Disclaimer: Third Millennium Trading does not recommend the purchase or short sale of any stocks. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk. The information presented here is designed to contribute to your understanding. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is critical (more).