Trading Review for 3/28/2000
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Successful trading is about knowing where to look for opportunities, knowing when to seize the opportunity (or not), and managing their risk to maximize their profits. To that end, let's take a quick look at today's trading action relative to the top Trade Prospector signals:
Volatility - Volatility Compressions, Trading Range Patterns, and Multiday Patterns
ABGX Sold through its 175.5 lower breakpoint triggering shorts for up to 25 points RMBS Gapped open lower (gapping out of its trading channel) and sold through its 317.8 lower breakpoint for up to 22 points RBAK Sank quickly through its 287.4 lower breakpoint for up to 24 points CRGN Gapped open higher 3 points short of its upper breakpoint but quickly sold off ultimately triggering shorts at its 81.7 lower breakpoint twice - first for up to 3 points and then for up to 5 points BRCD Traded through the 168.9 upper breakpoint on lackluster volume for up to 2 points and then reversed eventually triggering short trades at its 163.6 lower breakpoint for up to 6 points INCY Continued its downward spiral triggering shorts at its 101.1 lower breakpoint for up to 20 points SDLI Sold off through its 209.4 lower breakpoint triggering shorts for up to 24 points FDRY Joined the Nasdaq selling spree by selling through its 147.9 lower channel boundary twice - first for up to 2 points and then after rebounded back to the channel boundary and dying shorts again profited up to 10 points
Momentum - Breakthrough Momentum and Momentum Intersections
EMLX Continued its downward momentum through its 151.6 continuation boundary for up to 30 points ZIXI Lost its momentum from yesterday gapping lower from the open - it stayed within its boundaries - no trade VNTR Continued downward through its 73.6 continuation boundary and then that boundary held as resistance during several attempts to rebound - multiple shorting opportunities, the last one worth up to 10 points ARDM Gapped lower and ultimately triggered a continuing short trade at 16.3 which was stopped out for a fractional loss - the stock hugged the boundary for much of the day - traders should have stepped back due to the congestion at the boundary KIDE Continued its downward momentum through its 27.5 continuation boundary for up to 2 points ONE Remained within its boundaries - no trade - but watch tomorrow, it had a down 5 minute bar on high volume which could indicate failed upward momentum - look for possible continued selling
Trading Channel - Channel Breach, Near Trading Channel, and Near/Narrow Channel
MSTR Remained within its breakout boundaries - the only trade was for directional swing traders at the 101.1 swing point for up to 13 points PWAV Sold back into its channel below 158.7 and eventually dropped below its 155.5 lower breakpoint, but traders were whipsawed as the price congested around that boundary - after being stopped out for a loss on a whipsaw, traders should have stepped back - directional swing traders would have made a couple attemts within the first 15 minutes as the price action swung back and forth through the 163.9 swing point, eventually their last short held for up to 9 points VERT Rallied short of its lower channel boundary and then continued its downward movement from yesterday triggering shorts at its 178.2 lower breakpoint for up to 16 points - directional swing traders who risked shorting from the failed rally within 0.4 of the 184.9 swing point picked up to 22 points CRA Triggered shorts at its 107.4 lower channel boundary for up to 15 points - no directional swing play because the price action never approached the overhead 111 swing point - the stock finished strong inspite of the selling with a 6 1/2 point move up on relatively high volume afterhours - this may be indicative of short covering by daytraders or could signal a coming short term reversal off of its oversold condition ITWO Triggered shorts at its 156.4 lower channel boundary for up to 23 points INTC Rallied to 3/16 beyond its 137.5 upper channel boundary on the volume climax spike that punctuated the decreasing volume throughout the rally, traders who were faked long were quickly stopped out for losses (this highlights the need to confirm a breakout using volume and L2 (for Nasdaq stocks at least) - traders were triggered short as the price traded through its 134.9 lower channel boundary for up to 2 points, a double top at the lower channel boundary gave two more shorting opportunities - first for up to 1 1/2 points and again for up to 3 points going into the close
Envelope - Breakout Patterns and Envelope Patterns
JNPR Failed to continue its breakout at its 312.8 continuation boundary and seesawed its way to close down 16 points - except for those risking the reversal at the failure at resistance (which was good for up to 5-23 points) this was a no trade POWI Continued its downward move through its 25.7 continuation boundary for up to 2 1/2 points - it sold off hard on high volume during the last 5 minutes - look for possible continued selling tomorrow FNV Remained within its boundaries - no trade NEON Triggered short selling at its 49 breakout sell entry for up to 7 points - note that there was strong afterhours buying volume and the price action took the price as high as 51 1/4 - this could indicate a reversal from its recent downtrend CL Was unable to get convincingly through its 57.4 buy boundary on decent volume and triggered reversal traders short on the failure at resistance for up to 1 1/2 points - otherwise it remained within its boundaries and gave breakout traders no trade PGEX Triggered shorts at its 16.3 sell entry for fractional gains - the stock found strong support at 15 1/2 which could indicate a possible reversal coming
Knowing where to expect, and capitalizing on, reversals is a key profit making tool in the daytrader's arsenal.
Whipsaws can happen in choppy markets and traders should always step away from the trade or give themselves more distance from the original entry boundary when a reversal occurs (such as adding one point to the reversal side of the trade entry boundary) to reduce the effect. Losses are a fact of life, but they can be easily kept to a minimum while maximizing your profits with proper stop management.
Recognizing that a mere one point per day profit when trading 500 shares (or 5 option contracts) is $120,000 per year, you begin to understand the potential for profit in applying Trade Prospector's information.
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Copyright 2000, by Third Millennium Trading. All rights reserved. This information is proprietary and reserved for the personal use of Trade Prospector users and registrants. No other use is permitted without the express authorization of Third Millennium Trading.
Disclaimer: Third Millennium Trading does not recommend the purchase or short sale of any stocks. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk. The information presented here is designed to contribute to your understanding. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is critical (more).