Trading Review for 3/28/2000
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Successful trading is about knowing where to look for opportunities, knowing when to seize the opportunity (or not), and managing their risk to maximize their profits. To that end, let's take a quick look at today's trading action relative to the top Trade Prospector signals:
Volatility - Volatility Compressions, Trading Range Patterns, and Multiday Patterns
ABGX Gave three short entries at its 187.4 lower breakpoint- first for up to 5 points, then for up to 1 point at which point the price action congested around the breakpoint and finally broke lower for up to 8 points, it then managed to rally back to the breakpoint and stall thereby offering another short for up to 5 points - watch for further action, it's not done yet RMBS Triggered short trades at its 334.1 lower breakpoint twice - first for up to 9 points and then again for up to 9 more points - this one still has further movement ahead of it CRGN Triggered shorts at its 84.9 lower breakpoint for up to 2 points - look for more action soon VIGN Crashed through its 224 lower breakpoint triggering shorts for up to 9 points CRA Offered short trades at its 112.1 lower breakpoint for up to 5 points CHKP Rallied short of its 220.9 upper breakpoint and then sold off, traders were triggered short at the 205.8 lower channel boundary for up to 9 points (traders risking the reversal at resistance gained up to an extra 12 points) ITWO Rallied short of its 179.5 upper channel boundary and then weakened, it triggered shorts at its 171.5 lower breakpoint for up to 12 points (traders who risked the reversal near 178 gained up to an extra 6 points) INCY Rallied into its trading channel and then fell back out of it through ths 112.4 lower channel boundary for up to 7 points
Momentum - Breakthrough Momentum and Momentum Intersections
CPN Remained within its boundaries, however after finding support at 80 and rallying back it looks like it has the potential to keep going up at least some tomorrow - watch the 86.8 price level for a possible long entry GOTO Lost its momentum and triggered short trades at its 47 failed momentum boundary for 1 point - its low energy congestion around 47 later in the day was a definite stand aside signal HLIT Reversed course and rallied through its 100 failed momentum boundary for up to 2 points before resuming its downward momentum - it triggered shorts at its 92.5 continuation boundary for up to 2 more points U Triggered longs at its 26.1 continuation boundary which were closed for fractional losses at the end of the day (some traders may have held the positions overnight anticipating further upside)
Trading Channel - Channel Breach, Near Trading Channel, and Near/Narrow Channel
MSTR Gapped lower but eventually rallied briefly and allowed short entry when it traded back down through its 109.3 lower breakpoint for up to 14 points RBAK Gave from 1 point gains to 1 point losses as it found support near its 292.1 lower breakpoint - after the congestion at support was clear, traders should have stepped back AETH This was Mr. Toad's Wild Ride - first selling through its 247.3 lower breakpoint triggering shorts for up to 10 points, then rallying back to the breakpoint only to fail again at the boundary thereby offering another short for up to 12 points, then after lunch rallying through its 249.3 upper channel boundary for up to 17 points, and finally failing to sustain the rally and selling off back through the lower breakpoint for up to 4 points ARBA Initially triggered shorts at its 247.6 lower channel boundary for up to 3 points it then rallied back to within 2 points of the upper breakpoint and closed weak - look for possible further selling as a result of this weak rally attempt MEDI Dropped to just below its 180.2 upper channel boundary and then traded back up through it thereby triggering long trades for up to 6 points - the fairly narrow intraday trading range could give forth to a radical move one way or the other in the next day or two - be ready for it
Envelope - Breakout Patterns and Envelope Patterns
WCII Sold off from the open but recovered and attempted to resume its upward pattern, however the rally failed short of the 66.6 continuation boundary and the stock sold off in a minor seesaw pattern into a very weak close - this looks like a classic false breakout, failed rally pattern - look for possible continued selling tomorrow - traders who faded the failure at the 66.6 resistance picked up to 5 points, otherwise no trade TRW Traded within its boundaries - no trade ROBV Failed to continue its rally through its continuation boundary and sold off through its false breakout/failed rally boundary at 18.4 for up to 1 point - looking weak, look for possible further selling CYOE Continued its rally but failed 0.1 short of its 14.6 continution boundary and sold off - the failure near the continuation boundary and a weak close could be signalling a false breakout, look for possible further selling ONE Traded through its 32.3 breakout buy entry boundary for up to 2 points XPDR Gapped lower below its 25.6 false breakout boundary and congested within about a 1/2 point range just below the failure boundary - conviction looks weak and the 25.6 level looks like resistance, a good setup for potentially more selling - look for a break below 24 1/2 as a possible quick short
Knowing where to expect, and capitalizing on, reversals is a key profit making tool in the daytrader's arsenal.
Whipsaws can happen in choppy markets and traders should always step away from the trade or give themselves more distance from the original entry boundary when a reversal occurs (such as adding one point to the reversal side of the trade entry boundary) to reduce the effect. Losses are a fact of life, but they can be easily kept to a minimum while maximizing your profits with proper stop management.
Recognizing that a mere one point per day profit when trading 500 shares (or 5 option contracts) is $120,000 per year, you begin to understand the potential for profit in applying Trade Prospector's information.
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Copyright 2000, by Third Millennium Trading. All rights reserved. This information is proprietary and reserved for the personal use of Trade Prospector users and registrants. No other use is permitted without the express authorization of Third Millennium Trading.
Disclaimer: Third Millennium Trading does not recommend the purchase or short sale of any stocks. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk. The information presented here is designed to contribute to your understanding. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is critical (more).