Trading Review for 2/29/2000
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It was "Leap Day" and the market definitely leaped. The two reports triggered no worries and the market is confirming the short term bottom we mentioned Friday.
Successful trading is about knowing where to look for opportunities, knowing when to seize the opportunity (or not), and managing their risk to maximize their profits. To that end, let's take a quick look at today's trading action relative to the top Trade Prospector signals:
Volatility - Volatility Compressions, Trading Range Patterns, and Multiday Patterns
ARBA Tanked over rumors about problems with an expected split -yet remained within its breakount boundaries - SR3 traders picked up 4 points, otherwise no trade JNPR Opened above its 238.2 upper breakpoint (but still within its trading channel) - it pulled back briefly and gave an opportunity to go long either at the upper breakpoint or the 241.1 upper trading channel boundary for a 39-42 point trade HYSQ Gained almost 9 points today, but its trading was within its breakount boundaries - SR3 traders picked up6 points, otherwise no trade SIFY Gapped open beyond its boundaries and rallied an addition 1 5/8 beyond the open before selling off for the rest of the day but did not breach its breakdown boundaries - no trades NEON Triggered long entries at the 84.1 upper breakpoint for up to 12 points BLDP Charged through its 105.4 upper breakpoint for gains of up to 10 points EBAY Momentarily rallied near the open and then sank for the rest of the day until pulling back during the last hour - it triggered short trades at its 142.3 lower breakpoint for up to about 4 points LHSP Triggered long trades at the 99.3 upper channel boundary twice - first for 1 point and again for up to about 9 points
Momentum - Breakthrough Momentum and Momentum Intersections
CNXT Gapped up beyond its 105.1 downward momentum reversal boundary but then proceded to crater back through its 94 momentum continuation boundary - the gap open delayed entry until the downward momentum was confirmable by penetrating the continuation boundary for a 3 1/2 point trade SAWS Gapped up beyond its 46.8 momentum reversal boundary, sank and then rallied, only to sell off again below the reversal boundary, it finally traded up again through the reversal boundary to deliver 1 point ORCL Yet another dramatic gap open reversal beyond its 69.3 reversal boundary - the stock never traded back far enough to give a momentum boundary trade CMRC Also gapped open beyond its reversal boundary but quickly sank and ultimately giving short trade entry at its 210.9 momentum continuation boundary for up to 10 points profit - after piercing the 210.9 boundary, the stock congested near the 210 price level until after 11am ET, depending on how you managed your trailing stops this congestion may have stopped you out for 2-4 points before you were able to realize the full 10 point potential profit INAP Remained within its momentum boundaries - no trade SCMR Continued its upward momentum through its 147.5 continuation boundary for up to 6 points WAVX Gapped beyond its upward momentum continuation boundary and ran another 5 points - no trade if you obey our "trade through" rule on momentum boundary trades
Trading Channel - Channel Breach, Near Trading Channel, and Near/Narrow Channel
ITWO Triggered long trades twice after selling off below its 160.3 upper channel boundary and then rallying back through it -the first attempt at rebreaching the channel resulted in being stopped out for breakeven or fractiional losses, the second assault late in the day produced from 1-3 points VITR Gave no good boundary trade entries - NOTE: this stock is both back in its trading channel AND at the top of the volatility compression indicators - watch for a possible trade tomorrow IMNX Bounced exactly off its 190.8 upper trading channel during a morning selloff and then rallied for the rest of the day through its 198.5 upper breakpoint - if you took the trade at the upper channel boundary you made up to 9 points, if you waited for the breakpoint breakout you made 1 point ANAD Triggered long trades at its 152.3 upper breakpoint for 4 points and then triggered short trades as it cratered through its 138.7 lower breakpoint late in the day for 4 more points CMGI Triggered brief long trades in the morning when it opened just below and poked through its 119.8 upper breakpoint for a couple points, it then sold off until late in the day back into its trading channel, when it again rallied back through its 116.5 upper channel boundary traders were triggered long for up to 14 points AFFX Was all over the map but nevertheless managed to give traders several long trade opportunities as it swung down into its trading channel at 291.3 and then back up through it - profits ranged up to 12 points NSOL Gapped beyond its 312.9 channel boundary and remained there much of the day, finally selling back within its trading channel - when it rallied out near the end of the day it triggered long trades worth up to 9 points BRCM Gapped well beyond its trading channel and remained there - no trade
Envelope - Breakout Patterns and Envelope Patterns
SPYG Rallied through its 59.5 envelope continuation boundary for up to 5 points WAVX Gapped beyond its 39.3 envelope continuation boundary and shot another 5 points - no trade though ADPT Remained within its envelope boundaries - no trade EGHT Gapped beyond its 27.5 breakout buy entry boundary and shot another 5 points - no trade SFX Also gapped open way beyond its breakout entry, but sold off for the rest of the day - no trade
Of interest to daytraders, from the Trading Index - CRA (20+ points), CMDX (10 points), SDLI (10 points), RMBS (53 points), TERN (11 points), MLNM (7 points), ITWO (10 points), PDLI (46 points)
Knowing where to expect, and capitalizing on, reversals is a key profit making tool in the daytrader's arsenal.
Whipsaws can happen in choppy markets and traders should always step away from the trade or give themselves more distance from the original entry boundary when a reversal occurs (such as adding one point to the reversal side of the trade entry boundary) to reduce the effect. Losses are a fact of life, but they can be easily kept to a minimum while maximizing your profits with proper stop management.
Recognizing that a mere one point per day profit when trading 500 shares (or 5 option contracts) is $120,000 per year, you begin to understand the potential for profit in applying Trade Prospector's information.
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Copyright 2000, by Third Millennium Trading. All rights reserved. This information is proprietary and reserved for the personal use of Trade Prospector users and registrants. No other use is permitted without the express authorization of Third Millennium Trading.
Disclaimer: Third Millennium Trading does not recommend the purchase or short sale of any stocks. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk. The information presented here is designed to contribute to your understanding. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is critical (more).