Trading Review for 2/25/2000

We may be about due for at least a short term bottom.   Keep an eye on the March S&P futures.  There is support in the 1313-1320 range and a daily close above 1355 or a rally back above 1365 will likely confirm a low.   Also watch the March NDX futures for signs about Nasdaq stocks.  3968 is a critical level and close below that could be the first sign that the Nasdaq divergence is reversing and could precipitate selling.  Otherwise, a continued rally above 4800 is possible.

Successful trading is about knowing where to look for opportunities, knowing when to seize the opportunity (or not), and managing their risk to maximize their profits.  To that end, let's take a quick look at today's trading action relative to the top Trade Prospector signals:

Volatility - Volatility Compressions, Trading Range Patterns, and Multiday Patterns

CHKP Traded through its 192.1 upper trading channel boundary triggering long positions for 16 points
EMLX Popped through its 159 upper breakpoint for 2 points
INHL Gave a long entry at its 93.2 upper channel boundary for 5 points
MLNM Fell from within 2 points of its upper breakpoint, but remained within its boundaries - no trade
BBH Triggered a long trade at its 209.3 upper breakpoint for 9 points
PDLI Gapped open but briefly pulled back to within 1/4 point of its 214.8 upper breakpoint giving long entries worth up to 45 points
BOBJ Fell through its 116.1 lower breakpoint for a short trade worth 3 1/2 points
ITWO Gapped beyond its 178.3 upper breakpoint and continued to as high as 197 1/4, but then plummeted after lunch through its 168.3 lower breakpoint triggering a short trade worth 38 points
CMVT Triggered long trades at its 189.6 upper channel boundary three times - once for 3 points, again for 1 point, and finally for 6 points

Momentum - Breakthrough Momentum and Momentum Intersections

LVLT Its upward momentum failed just short of its 119.7 continuation boundary and fell through its 111.4 failure boundary - the breakdown was worth 1 point, the reversal was worth 9 points
TSAI Remained within its momentum boundaries - no trade
ETN Gapped below its momentum failure boundary and fell 5 points - no trade though because the gap lower was more than 1/2 point beyond the boundary
SPY Poked its head above its 136 downward momentum failure boundary, but then failed this momentum reversal just short of its 137.1 upper breakpoint - it then continued its downward momentum - if you took the breakout at 136 you had a fractional trade, if you traded the clear reversal you made about 3 points
ANTC Continued its upward momentum trading nicely through its 50.4 continuation boundary for 2 1/2 points
KSS Tried to reverse its downward course, but failed short of its 71.9 failure boundary - the reversal was worth 2 points, otherwise the stock remained within its boundaries

Trading Channel - Channel Breach, Near Trading Channel, and Near/Narrow Channel

NSOL Fell back into its trading channel at the end of the day, but otherwise provided no clear breakouts - watch this for Monday
AFFX Gapped open but pulled back and later gave a good long entry through its 293.3 upper breakpoint worth almost 34 points
AMCC Gapped open well beyond its boundaries - no trade
CLPA Traded up to just short of its upper breakpoint and failed giving a reversal trade worth 3 points
SAPE Traded through its 78.3 upper breakpoint for 1 1/2 points and then sold off twice to within 1/16 of its 74.9 lower channel boundary - if you played the first reversal you picked up 3 points as it traded up near its upper breakpoint and failed.  The failure at 78.3 gave reversal players another 3 point opportunity.
SFE Triggered short trades twice at its 150.6 lower breakpoint - once for 2 points and again for 3 points
HYSQ Traded through its 103.8 upper channel boundary for 2 points - it then traded through its 98 lower channel boundary for 3 points
MLNM Gapped open and then traded back into its trading channel giving long entries at its 264.2 upper channel boundary five times - each for 1-5 points
JNPR Broke through its 237.6 upper channel boundary for 1 point

Envelope - Breakout Patterns and Envelope Patterns

NXTL Gapped below its lower boundary, but ultimately traded through its upper boundary at 140.9 for 2 1/2 points
COMS Traded in a tight range until about 1:30pm and then sank 2 points and then rallied through its 83.5 upper boundary for 3/4 point and then reversed and plummetted 4 1/4 points
MER Remained within its trading boundaries - no trade
EMC Rallied and failed at its 125.5 upper boundary and ultimately fell fractionally through its 120.3 lower boundary before rallying again - the reversal at the upper boundary was worth about 5 points, the reversal at the lower boundary was worth 4 points
TER Opened at its 85 lower boundary and sank to 84 1/8 for a fractional short trade - it then rallied through its 86.5 upper boundary for 1 point, failed and fell back to its lower boundary only to reverse off that boundary again, sailing through its upper boundary for 3 points - it again reversed and fell back to close at its lower boundary - a rollercoaster day
BDX Traded through its 32.5 upper boundary for about 2 points

Of interest to daytraders, from the Trading Index - MLNM (5 points), TERN (6 points), RMBS (9 points), CMDX (30 points), CRA (31 points), IMNX (7 points), PDLI (45 points)

Knowing where to expect, and capitalizing on, reversals is a key profit making tool in the daytrader's arsenal.

Whipsaws can happen in choppy markets and traders should always step away from the trade or give themselves more distance from the original entry boundary when a reversal occurs (such as adding one point to the reversal side of the trade entry boundary) to reduce the effect.  Losses are a fact of life, but they can be easily kept to a minimum while maximizing your profits with proper stop management.

Recognizing that a mere one point per day profit when trading 500 shares (or 5 option contracts) is $120,000 per year, you  begin to understand the potential for profit in applying Trade Prospector's information.

Copyright 2000, by Third Millennium Trading.  All rights reserved.  This information is proprietary and reserved for the personal use of Trade Prospector users and registrants.  No other use is permitted without the express authorization of Third Millennium Trading.

Disclaimer: Third Millennium Trading does not recommend the purchase or short sale of any stocks.  Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk.  The information presented here is designed to contribute to your understanding. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is critical (more).