Trading Review for 2/18/2000
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Even on a mixed day, there are always many profitable bright spots if you knew where to look for them and when to enter the trades.
Successful trading is about knowing where to look for opportunities, knowing when to seize the opportunity (or not), and managing their risk to maximize their profits. To that end, let's take a quick look at today's trading action relative to the top Trade Prospector signals:
Volatility - Volatility Compressions, Trading Range Patterns, and Multiday Patterns
VITR Gapped above its 184.6 breakout boundary but pulled back and gave a good long entry for 10 points CMDX Oscillated around its SR3 directional swing level, but ultimately fell through its 119.1 breakdown boundary for 2 1/2 points VIGN Remained within its breakout/breakdown boundaries - no trade VERT Peaked just short of its 214.8 breakout boundary and fell through its 206.5 breakdown boundary - the breakdown was worth 8 points and the reversal was worth 16 points RMBS Peaked at 149 just short of its 149.3 upper boundary and gave reversal players a 12 point trade NTOP Gapped below its 50.7 lower boundary, but eventually triggered long trades at the 54.5 upper boundary for 2 1/2 points LWIN Fell through its 87 breakdown boundary for 3 points ANAD Initially triggered longs at the 145.4 breakout boundary for 2 1/2 points and then during a sharp selloff in the afternoon triggered shorts at the 141.1 breakdown boundary for 2 1/2 more points - those playing the reversal rebound after the selloff picked up an additional 5 points
Momentum - Breakthrough Momentum and Momentum Intersections
SAWS Gapped 10 points about the downward momentum reversal boundary - no trade DCLK Inspite of the news that it would further dilute its shareholders with 5.7 million shares of corporate stock and the further liquidation of 1.8 million shares by insider shareholders - it nevertheless popped through the 92.7 downward momentum reversal boundary for 1 point ENZN Momentum failed short of the 55.9 continuation boundary and the price fell through the 51.2 failure boundary for about 6 points - reversal players picked up an extra 4 points CKFR Continued its slide falling through its 99.3 downward momentum continuation boundary for almost 18 points AXP Also continued its downward momentum through the 147.4 continuation boundary for 12 points PMTC Remained locked within its momentum boundaries - no trade
Trading Channel - Channel Breach, Near Trading Channel, and Near/Narrow Channel
TERN After spectacular gains the other day, TERN gapped 5 points beyond its 220 upper breakpoint boundary and then sold off. A brief long entry around 10:30 gave traders 10 points and another long entry about 3:30 netted another 10 points. Traders who neglected to expand their entry zone following the 10:30 dip, long trigger, and reversal may have been triggered long around 12:30 but then stopped out for a small loss. AFFX Sold off for most of the day, ultimately falling through its 275.5 lower breakpoint for 5 points. Traders who then took the long trigger when the price reversed back through the 283.8 upper trading channel boundary picked up one point IMNX Gapped well above its 202 upper breakpoint, but then sold off for most of the day - it never broke the 173.2 lower breakpoint or repenetrated the upper breakpoint - no trade EXDS Traded within its trading channel - no trade INTC Opened at its 110 upper trading channel boundary and sold off, it later rebounded and ran 1/2 point through the upper trading channel before reversing, stopping traders out with fractional losses. It then sold off for the rest of the day finally falling through its 105.8 lower channel boundary. The lower breach was worth a fractional gain while the reversal off at the 110 boundary was worth 4 1/2 points. EXTR Sold off through its 91.1 lower channel boundary triggering short trades worth 8 1/2 points SDLI Trading nicely through its 328.4 upper channel boundary for 7 points - the subsequent reversal was worth about 6 more points AMCC Sold off for the day and finally gave up a one point channel breakdown trade - shorting at the breach of the closer 219 lower breakpoint yielded 5 points and aggressive traders risking shorts on the dowward move through SR3 at 227.1 gained 13 points. TQNT Crashed 17 points from the open triggering a fractional short at the lower channel boundary - reversal traders picked up 8 points and aggressive traders risking a short at SR3 at 231.2 gained 12 points GNET Tried to rally at the open by failed 1/2 point short of its 90.7 upper channel boundary and then crashed through its 88.4 lower channel boundary - the breakdown was worth 3 points, the reversal 5 points
Envelope - Breakout Patterns and Envelope Patterns
CLPA Gapped beyond its 59.6 boundary but pulled back and gave a long entry within 1/2 point of the boundary for 6 points VECO Opened at its 75 upper boundary and triggered longs for almost 4 points AWRE Triggered longs at the 61.5 upper boundary for 1 point - the reversal was worth 5 more points ETEC Rallied to within about 3/4 point of the upper boundary but then failed and sold off for the rest of the day - the reversal was worth 7 points and the breakdown through the 110.9 lower boundary was worth a fractional gain ALTR Had a narrow boundary range - it initially gapped a point below the 79.5 lower boundary, rallied back through it to fail short of the 80.5 upper boundary and fall back through 79.5. This action between the open and about 11am resulted in fractional trades and the expansion of the trigger zones to 81.5 and 78.5. Finally about 11:30, the price fell through 78.5 and continued to sell off another 5+ points until the late afternoon. LNCR Remained within its boundaries - no trade
Of interest to trend traders - from the 20% pullback group, CKFR (15 points on continued pullback)
Of note to daytraders using the trading index feature - All - PDLI (14 points), MLNM (4 points), CRA (9 points), AMCC (5 points), CKFR (15 points), Under $50 - AXTI (12 points)
Knowing where to expect, and capitalizing on, reversals is a key profit making tool in the daytrader's arsenal.
Whipsaws can happen in choppy markets and traders should always step away from the trade or give themselves more distance from the original entry boundary when a reversal occurs (such as adding one point to the reversal side of the trade entry boundary) to reduce the effect. Losses are a fact of life, but they can be easily kept to a minimum while maximizing your profits with proper stop management.
Recognizing that a mere one point per day profit when trading 500 shares (or 5 option contracts) is $120,000 per year, you begin to understand the potential for profit in applying Trade Prospector's information.
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Copyright 2000, by Third Millennium Trading. All rights reserved. This information is proprietary and reserved for the personal use of Trade Prospector users and registrants. No other use is permitted without the express authorization of Third Millennium Trading.
Disclaimer: Third Millennium Trading does not recommend the purchase or short sale of any stocks. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk. The information presented here is designed to contribute to your understanding. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is critical (more).